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Nov2007 RTRS-POLL - US crude stocks seen down on lower imports

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil stocks probably fell last week on lower imports, a preliminary Reuters poll of nine industry analysts showed on Monday.

Analysts called for an average draw of 800,000 barrels for crude oil stocks, a 1.4 million barrel drop in distillates, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, and a 1.0 million barrel increase in gasoline stocks.

The U.S. government's petroleum inventory report for the week to Nov. 23 will be released on Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. EST (1530 GMT).

Poor refiner margins and the backwardated futures curve structure -- which means refiners lose money holding extra inventories -- may have helped draw down crude stocks, experts said. In a backwardated market, prices for future month deliveries are lower than the current nearest delivery month.

"Crude stocks should indicate another draw since imports could slip a bit further in conjunction with the inverted spread curve and poor refinery margins," said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch & Associates in Galena, Illinois.

Expectations that refineries increased capacity utilization was "also likely to pull on supply," said Ritterbusch.

The poll showed an average rise in refinery utilization of 0.7 percentage point, to 87.7 percent of capacity, with forecasters citing several refinery restarts adding to reifnery activity. In the same week last year, refinery utilization rose 1.0 percentage point to 88.1 percent.

For a list of refinery problems and restarts, click on .