Fitch on U.S. Housing and Interest Rates: 'How fast and how high?'

miércoles 21 de enero de 2015 10:34 GYT

(The following statement was released by the rating agency) NEW YORK, January 21 (Fitch) With the prospect of rising interest rates likely to dominate market interest this year, the most pertinent questions regarding U.S. housing will be 'How fast and how high?', according to Fitch Ratings. By and large Fitch expects the impact of a rising rate environment to be muted across most housing sectors so long as the rate increases are gradual and driven by a strong economy. Conversely, steady, sharp advances in rates could have an opposite and more adverse effect. Interestingly, the lone anomaly in both scenarios is U.S. homebuilders. While a rising rate environment could prove problematic to homebuilders, sudden meaningful increases in rates could actually serve as a positive and spur home sales at least in the short term. That said, the ripple effect of rising rates on homebuilders would not be fully felt until 2016. If realized, this trend would emulate the housing environment of the mid-1990s, when rates shot up from 7.1% to 9.2% in the space of a year (1994). Analysts from Fitch's CMBS, RMBS, REITs and homebuilding groups detail the prospects of a rising rate environment on the aforementioned sectors in a series of videos published today. They are available in the 'Multimedia' page at ''. This series comes on the heels of Fitch's 'Global Housing and Mortgage Outlook'. Released last week, the outlook report is available at '' or by clicking on the link at the end of the press release. Contact: Steven Marks Managing Director, Head of U.S .REITs +1-212-908-9161 Fitch Ratings, Inc., 33 Whitehall Street, New York, NY 10004 Robert Curran Managing Director, Head of U.S. Homebuilding +1-212-908-0515 Huxley Somerville Managing Director, Head of U.S. CMBS +1-212-908-0381 Rui Pereira Managing Director, Head of U.S. RMBS +1-212-908-0766 Media Relations: Sandro Scenga, New York, Tel: +1 212-908-0278, Email: Additional information is available at ''. Applicable Criteria and Related Research: Global Housing and Mortgage Outlook – 2015 here ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. PLEASE READ THESE LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS BY FOLLOWING THIS LINK: here. IN ADDITION, RATING DEFINITIONS AND THE TERMS OF USE OF SUCH RATINGS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE AGENCY'S PUBLIC WEBSITE 'WWW.FITCHRATINGS.COM'. PUBLISHED RATINGS, CRITERIA AND METHODOLOGIES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THIS SITE AT ALL TIMES. FITCH'S CODE OF CONDUCT, CONFIDENTIALITY, CONFLICTS OF INTEREST, AFFILIATE FIREWALL, COMPLIANCE AND OTHER RELEVANT POLICIES AND PROCEDURES ARE ALSO AVAILABLE FROM THE 'CODE OF CONDUCT' SECTION OF THIS SITE. FITCH MAY HAVE PROVIDED ANOTHER PERMISSIBLE SERVICE TO THE RATED ENTITY OR ITS RELATED THIRD PARTIES. DETAILS OF THIS SERVICE FOR RATINGS FOR WHICH THE LEAD ANALYST IS BASED IN AN EU-REGISTERED ENTITY CAN BE FOUND ON THE ENTITY SUMMARY PAGE FOR THIS ISSUER ON THE FITCH WEBSITE.