EMERGING MARKETS-Brazil markets swing on S&P warning; real touches 3.43/USD

martes 28 de julio de 2015 14:24 GYT
 

SAO PAULO, July 28 (Reuters) - Brazil's financial markets
swung widely on Tuesday after Standard & Poor's warned that the
country could lose its coveted investment-grade rating in the
coming year.
    Brazil's currency, the real  started the day
lower against the dollar, crossing the 3.40 level for the first
time in over 12 years.
    S&P in the early afternoon affirmed Brazil's credit rating
of BBB-minus, the agency's lowest investment grade rating, and
revised the outlook on that rating to negative from stable,
signaling a downgrade is possible over the next 12 to 18 months.
 
    S&P's announcement drove the currency as low as 3.43 per
dollar before it recovered losses shortly thereafter to trade at
the 3.40 level.
    "Most of the market was expecting something like this," said
Pedro Tuesta, an economist with 4Cast in Washington D.C. "The
only surprise was that it was S&P and not Moody's."
    Other analysts corroborated that view, saying the initial
move was a knee-jerk reaction. Most remain on the lookout for a
possible downgrade of Brazil to junk by Moody's Investor
Service.
    The real has lost nearly 22 percent against the dollar this
year as investors fret over mounting inflation, economic
recession, weaker demand for commodities and political
turbulence.
    Equities saw smaller moves. Brazil's Bovespa stock index
 remained in positive territory throughout the session,
supported by preferred shares of mining giant Vale SA
, which gained about 6 percent on higher prices for
iron ore .IO62-CNI=SI.
    Traders said the Bovespa was also rising on bargain-hunting,
snapping the index's seven-day 8.2 percent slump.
    Yields on Brazilian interest rate futures <0#DIJ:> rose
sharply on the long end of the curve after the S&P announcement.
    "The market is now operating at price levels corresponding
with a downgrade to junk," said Bruno Gonçalves, an analyst at
the Alpes brokerage in Sao Paulo.
    Financial markets were little-changed across the rest of
Latin America.
    
    Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies at 1805 GMT:

 Stock indexes                        daily %    YTD %
                             Latest    change   change
 MSCI Emerging Markets        892.69     0.01    -6.66
                                               
 MSCI LatAm                  2250.94     0.46   -17.86
                                               
 Brazil Bovespa           49400.9056     1.37    -1.21
                                   2           
 Mexico IPC                 44114.57     0.92     2.25
                                               
 Chile IPSA                   3796.8     0.09    -1.41
                                               
 Chile IGPA                 18522.25     0.14    -1.84
                                               
 Argentina MerVal           10918.26     3.11    27.27
                                               
 Colombia IGBC               9903.57     0.63   -14.88
                                               
 Venezuela IBC              15537.75     3.28   302.66
                                               
                                                      
 Currencies                           daily %    YTD %
                                       change   change
                              Latest           
 Brazil real                  3.3850    -0.68   -21.49
                                               
 Mexico peso                  16.279     0.07    -9.43
                                               
 Chile peso                      666    -0.04    -8.95
                                               
 Colombia peso                  2855     0.12   -16.36
 Peru sol                      3.184     0.00    -6.44
                                               
 Argentina peso               9.1750    -0.03    -6.81
 (interbank)                                   
                                               
 Argentina peso                 14.9    -1.68    -6.04
 (parallel)                                    
                                               
 

 (Reporting by Bruno Federowski and Asher Levine; Editing by
Cynthia Osterman)