UPDATE 1-Brazil's 2016 inflation forecast tops 6 percent - poll

martes 13 de octubre de 2015 08:24 GYT
 

(Adds data, background)
    BRASILIA, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Market forecasts for Brazil's
inflation rate in 2016 rose for a 10th straight week and
surpassed 6 percent, a central bank survey showed on Tuesday,
suggesting a smaller possibility of interest rate cuts in coming
months even as the economy contracts.
    Brazil's annual inflation is set to end 2016 at
6.05 percent, above the government's 4.5 percent target,
according to the median forecasts of about 100 economists in the
survey.
    The median estimate of the five most accurate forecasters in
the poll projected inflation even faster, at 6.72 percent.
    Inflation expectations through 2018 have risen since early
September as Brazil's currency hit an all-time low, undermining
the central bank's efforts to keep price pressures under control
with interest rates hiked to 14.25 percent. 
    Forecasts for benchmark interest rates at end-2016 rose in
the poll, even as estimates for economic growth in 2015 and 2016
were revised down to minus 2.97 percent and minus 1.2 percent
respectively.
    
    
 (pct)                               2015                2016
                       previous       new  previous       new
                       forecast  forecast  forecast  forecast
 Consumer inflation        9.53      9.70      5.94      6.05
 Exchange rate             4.00      4.00      4.00      4.15
 (reais per U.S                                      
 dollar, end-period)                                 
 Interest rate            14.25     14.25     12.50     12.63
 (end-period)                                        
 GDP growth               -2.85     -2.97     -1.00     -1.20
 Industrial output        -6.50     -7.00     -0.29     -1.00
 
 (Reporting by Silvio Cascione; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)