EMERGING MARKETS-Brazil real outperforms on hopes of political change

martes 8 de marzo de 2016 17:27 GYT

(Updates prices)
    By Bruno Federowski
    SAO PAULO, March 8 (Reuters) - The Brazilian real,
sidestepping weak Chinese trade data, outperformed weaker Latin
American currencies on Tuesday on hopes a corruption scandal
could trigger the ouster of unpopular President Dilma Rousseff.
    The real closed up 1.42 percent at 3.738 per dollar,
its highest level in three months.
    Many traders blame interventionist policies pursued by
Rousseff and her predecessor Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva for
driving Brazil into what could be its worst recession in
    Over the last few months, Brazilian markets have often
rallied whenever chances of a change in government seemed to
    Traders said those odds grew sharply after Lula was detained
for questioning on Friday in a federal investigation of a vast
corruption scheme, fanning Rousseff's political crisis.
    The benchmark Bovespa stock index fell slightly in
volatile trade, pausing after six days of gains.
    "There has been a change in the tone of the market since
last week," said José Carlos Amado, a trader with Spinelli
brokerage in São Paulo. "Everybody used to be bearish, but now
some see reason to buy reals."
    Political risk consultancy Eurasia Group estimated a 55
percent chance Rousseff could be forced to step down before her
term ends in 2018, according to a report.
    The real was the best performer among widely traded Latin
American currencies, which fell after China's trade performance
slumped in February. Imports by the world's biggest consumer of
commodities fell for the 16th month in a row, while exports
tumbled the most in over six years. 
    The peso in Mexico, Latin America's second-biggest
economy after Brazil, dropped as much as 1.1 percent, its
sharpest fall in nearly a month, while the IPC stock index
 fell after eight sessions of gains.
    Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies at 2100 GMT:
 Stock indexes                             daily %     YTD %
                               Latest       change    change
 MSCI Emerging Markets            788.17     -0.88      0.13
 MSCI LatAm                      2017.65     -0.99     11.37
 Brazil Bovespa                 49121.06     -0.25     13.31
 Mexico IPC                     44504.38     -1.03      3.55
 Chile IPSA                      3820.54     -0.45      3.81
 Chile IGPA                     18725.37     -0.42      3.16
 Argentina MerVal               13405.18      1.27     14.82
 Colombia IGBC                   9543.02     -1.62     11.65
 Venezuela IBC                  16315.88         0     11.84
 Currencies                                daily %     YTD %
                                            change    change
 Brazil real                      3.7380      1.42      5.30
 Mexico peso                     17.9430     -1.05     -4.14
 Chile peso                        682.2     -0.47      3.87
 Colombia peso                      3205     -2.92     -1.13
 Peru sol                         3.4631     -0.35     -1.44
 Argentina peso (interbank)      15.4450     -0.26    -18.97
 Argentina peso (parallel)         15.69      0.25     -9.95
 (Reporting by Bruno Federowski, additional reporting by Anna
Yukhananov; Editing by Dan Grebler and Richard Chang)