EMERGING MARKETS-Brazil stocks rise most in three years as Neves gains momentum

lunes 13 de octubre de 2014 16:30 GYT
 

(Adds closing prices, details, new quote)
    By Asher Levine
    SAO PAULO, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Brazilian stocks skyrocketed
on Monday as investors saw a higher likelihood of challenger
Aecio Neves defeating President Dilma Rousseff in this month's
election.
    Brazil's Bovespa stock index climbed its most in
over three years, while the nation's currency, the real 
, posted its biggest gain against the U.S. dollar since
mid-June.
    A survey of voter intentions by pollster Sensus released on
Saturday showed Neves with about 58.8 percent support, versus
41.2 percent for Rousseff, ahead of the Oct. 26 runoff vote.
Although recent polls from more widely watched research firms
showed the two candidates were running neck and neck, traders
seized on the data as a reason to pick up shares of state-run
companies such as Petrobras.
    Preferred shares of the oil producer formally known as
Petroleo Brasileiro SA jumped 10.5 percent. Many
investors believe a new administration would enact policies that
are more favorable to minority shareholders in the company.
    The Rousseff administration currently forces Petrobras to
import fuel at world prices and sell it at a loss on the
domestic market as a way to tamp down inflation.
    Investors also cheered a formal endorsement of Neves by
third-placed candidate Marina Silva on Sunday, which should
improve his chances of defeating Rousseff.
    "Aecio's campaign is all starting to come together now,"
said Pedro Arantes, a trader with BGC Liquidez in Sao Paulo.
"The big change is that Dilma is no longer the favorite, as she
was through this entire election."
    Arantes warned, however, that Neves' election is far from a
given, and any upcoming election poll that shows him losing
ground could cause the Bovespa to plummet.
    A widely watched voter poll from research firm Ibope is
scheduled to be released on Wednesday after market close.
    Other traders said Monday's gains were turbocharged by
bargain hunting after a sharp drop in Brazilian stocks on
Friday.
    Yields on Brazilian interest rate futures <0#DIJ:> fell
across the curve as the real strengthened about 1.5 percent. A
Neves win is expected to lower Brazil's risk profile among
global investors and increase demand for local assets.
    Elsewhere in Latin America, Chile's peso climbed
alongside higher prices for copper, the country's main
export, while Mexico's peso erased Friday's loss.
    Local currencies also received a boost after U.S. Federal
Reserve officials on Saturday said the bank could delay an
increase in U.S. interest rates if the global economy remains
weak enough to warrant it. 
    Colombia's financial markets were closed for the Columbus
Day holiday.
    
    Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies at 2006 GMT:
     Stock indexes        Latest      Daily     YTD pct
                                      pct       change
                                      change    
 MSCI Emerging Markets   992.19       0.23      -1.28
                                                
 MSCI LatAm              3,281.86     3.11      -0.56
                                                
 Brazil Bovespa          57,996.36    4.85      12.60
                                                
 Mexico IPC              43,088.67    -0.8      0.85
 Chile IPSA              3,858.49     0.69      4.31
 Chile IGPA              18,937.44    0.67      3.90
 Argentina MerVal        10,040.239   -1.6      86.24
                                                
 Colombia IGBC           -            -         -
                                                
 Peru IGRA               15590.98     0.28      -1.03
 Venezuela IBC           2889.47      2.31      5.59
                                                
 Currencies              Latest       Daily     YTD pct
                                      pct       change
                                      change    
 Brazil real             2.3910       0.03      -1.43
 Mexico peso             13.4312      0.37      -2.99
 Chile peso              588.5        0.59      -10.60
 Colombia peso           -            -         -
 Peru sol                2.904        0.00      -3.82
 Argentina peso          8.4650       0.12      -23.30
 (interbank)                                    
                                                
 Argentina peso          14.9         -0.47     -32.89
 (parallel)                                     
                                                
 
    

 (Reporting by Asher Levine; Editing by Lisa Von Ahn and Cynthia
Osterman)