UPDATE 1-Central bank data suggests Brazil escaped recession in Q3

lunes 17 de noviembre de 2014 07:20 GYT
 

(Recasts, adds context, details)

By Silvio Cascione

BRASILIA Nov 17 (Reuters) - Economic activity in Brazil rose more than expected in September, central bank data showed on Monday, suggesting the country is pulling out of a mild recession.

The Brazilian central bank's IBC-Br economic activity index rose 0.40 percent in September from August in seasonally adjusted terms, up from 0.20 percent in the previous month, the bank said on Monday.

The index, a proxy of gross domestic product data compiled by statistics agency IBGE, rose 0.6 percent in the third quarter from the previous one. If confirmed in GDP data due out later this month, the increase would signify the end of Brazil's current recession after two consecutive quarters with no growth.

The IBC-Br index, a gauge of activity in the farming, industry and services sectors, has diverged from official GDP data many times in recent years. Economists also warn any economic recovery will probably be very slow as re-elected President Dilma Rousseff is expected to roll back part of the economic stimulus implemented over the past few years.

"We continue to expect low growth for the next few quarters," economists at local consultancy firm MCM Consultores said in a research note.

The recession has triggered job losses in manufacturing and more recently, at once-booming retailers and homebuilders. It also weighed on tax revenues, straining public finances and increasing the risk of a credit rating downgrade.

The median estimate in a Reuters survey of 18 analysts was for a 0.14 percent increase.

Over the same month a year ago, the IBC-Br index rose a non-seasonally adjusted 0.92 percent. (Reporting by Silvio Cascione; Editing by Andrew Heavens)