COLUMN-China's iron ore mines won't shut fast enough to offset global supply boost: Russell

martes 1 de julio de 2014 02:11 GYT
 

--Clyde Russell is a Reuters columnist. The views expressed are his own.--

By Clyde Russell

LAUNCESTON, Australia, July 1 (Reuters) - Iron ore prices rose the most in 10 months last week, but hopes that this marks the start of a new bullish phase are likely to be dashed.

Spot Asian iron ore .IO62-CNI=SI ended last week at $94.90 a tonne, a gain of 3 percent from the prior week, with prices bolstered by an improvement in the outlook for manufacturing in China following the June HSBC flash Purchasing Managers' Index showing expansion for the first time in six months.

Iron ore prices are still down 30 percent from the $134.20 a tonne at the end of 2013, but they have recovered since briefly dropping to a 21-month low of $89 on June 16.

The bullish case for a recovery is largely based on expectations that Chinese domestic production will drop as high-cost mines are forced to close on unsustainable losses.

The loss of domestic output will open the door to increased imports, thus absorbing the extra supply being brought online by the major mining houses.

This view is bolstered by the improving outlook for steel demand on the back of faster investment in railway and other infrastructure spending as the authorities undertake what's been characterised by several analysts as a "mini-stimulus" to ensure economic growth remains above 7 percent per annum.   Continuación...