Boom times over for CEEMEA bond market
* Issuance could drop to less than US$100bn
* Political and market risks abound
* Euro market a beacon of hope
By Sudip Roy
LONDON, March 6 (IFR) - Bond new issuance from the Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa region could fall below the US$100bn mark this year after the slowest start to fundraising from the region since 2009.
Political and market risks have tempered transaction volumes so far this year. Although bankers expect to see a gradual pick-up in supply over the next few months, few think deal flow will get anywhere near the US$143bn seen in 2014, let alone the peak of US$194.5bn three years ago.
One debt chief thinks the market tone is as bad as it has been since 2008 when, he said, at least the problem could be pinpointed to one specific cause - the global financial crisis.
Only US$14.14bn was issued in the international markets in January and February, according to Thomson Reuters data, less than half the amount raised over the same period last year. It is also the lowest amount since 2009 when just US$4.22bn was raised in the first two months.
But that year saw a strong recovery with US$104.7bn of CEEMEA bonds eventually printed. Some bankers fear 2015 will pan out much less successfully and could become the first sub-US$100bn year since 2008 when just US$75.68bn was raised. "That's very possible," said one capital markets banker. "It looks pretty gloomy." Continuación...