GRAPHIC-Euro zone default insurance markets see little contagion from Greece

jueves 16 de abril de 2015 09:47 GYT

By Marius Zaharia and Vincent Flasseur

LONDON, April 16 (Reuters) - Default insurance markets show no obvious concern at the growing risk that Greece will leave the euro zone, suggesting investors can now contemplate a future for the currency union without Athens.

Default probabilities derived from credit default swaps -- seen as the purest gauge of credit risk -- have fallen this year in Italy, Spain and Portugal to around 10 percent, data from Markit show. In Greece, they have topped 80 percent.

Peripheral euro zone CDS:

Default probabilities:

In 2012, by contrast, the threat of Grexit pushed Portuguese, Spanish and Italian CDS prices to record highs. Default probabilities rose to between 40 and 60 percent.

During the debt crisis, the euro zone put in place a bailout fund and a mechanism to deal with troubled banks and the European Central Bank pledged to do whatever it takes to save the euro.

Euro zone banks now have only limited exposure to Greece and governments have never had easier access to markets, thanks to the ECB's trillion-euro asset-purchase programme, which gives investors more confidence to risk lending to them.

"We see Greece as very isolated," said Sandra Crowl, a member of the investment committee at Carmignac Gestion. "We're in such a much better situation in 2015 than we were in 2012."   Continuación...