UPDATE 1-WTO cites China, US, refugee costs as risks to trade growth
* China, Brazil, oil, commodities hit trade growth
* Growth outlook marked down to 2.8 pct in 2015, 3.9 in 2016
* Growth to be below 3 pct for fourth year running
* Trade down by average 0.7 pct quarter-on-quarter Q1 and Q2 (Adds details, quote)
By Tom Miles
GENEVA, Sept 30 (Reuters) - World trade will grow by 2.8 percent this year and could be pegged back further by a U.S. interest rate rise, China's economic slowdown or Europe's refugee crisis, the World Trade Organization said on Wednesday.
The forecast, revised down from a 3.3 percent forecast made in April, means 2015 will be the fourth year in a row with trade growth of less than 3 percent, half the annual average in 1990-2008 before the financial crisis hit.
The WTO's forecast implies growth will quicken this year, from 2.5 percent growth in 2014. But its expectations have repeatedly proved overly optimistic as hopes of global economic recovery have receded.
There were still big potential risks to its latest numbers. Continuación...