BUZZ-Ashmore: emerging from the mire

miércoles 23 de diciembre de 2015 09:53 GYT

** EM specialist Ashmore Group has had a rough ride, plagued by outflows from its funds and short sellers slamming its shares

** EM bleed: global asset managers closing EM funds as US interest rate forecasts (strong $ a risk e.g. for Russia/Brazil, big borrowers in currency) and China slowdown - which has worsened commodities rout - mean investors want their money back


** More pain for flows: sovereign wealth funds, hurt by collapse in oil price are withdrawing cash from asset managers. Morgan Stanley says prolonged low oil and expanding fiscal deficits could spell growing redemption pressure

** But Ashmore shares, down -42% from May 2013 peak, looking attractive to Old Mutual's Simon Murphy who has started a position in the company which he says has emerged from the EM turmoil much stronger than it went in as some of its weaker competitors exit

** Paid to wait: PM not expecting flows into EM debt to turn around on a one to two quarter view, but with the share price where it is and a 6.8% dividend yield, "you're now being paid to wait for some improvement in sentiment towards the company"

** Balance sheet strength makes PM very optimistic over dividend's sustainability (c20% of market cap in cash on B/S)

** Ashmore 4th-most borrowed stock on the FTSE 250, with c10% of its shares outstanding on loan, according to Markit (RM: