LONDON, Feb 10 (Reuters) - Renewable energy will grow at a greater annual rate than previously forecast and account for over one third of the growth in global power generation by 2035, oil company BP said on Wednesday.
Renewables, including biofuels and wind power, are projected to increase at a rate of 6.6 percent per year, boosting their share of the total primary energy mix to 9 percent by 2035, up from 3 percent currently, BP said in its annual Energy Outlook 2035.
The firm revised its forecast of renewables growth up by 14 percent from last year due to faster-than-expected technology cost reductions, particularly for solar power, and in anticipation of government policies to further support low-carbon energy.
BP likened the surge in renewable power to oil’s growth at the beginning of the 20th century.
“The rate at which renewables gain share from 2020 to 2035 matches oil’s gain over the 15 years of 1908-23 - years that included the Texas oil boom, the discovery of oil in the Middle East, the British Navy switching to oil, and the Model T Ford starting mass motorization,” BP said in the outlook.
Other renewables growth forecasts, however, are more bullish. Green energy policy network REN21 says renewable energy capacity grew by 8.5 percent in 2014 alone.
While renewable energy growth rises, coal growth will slow by 0.5 percent a year, resulting in its share of the primary energy mix falling to an all-time low of 25 percent by 2035, with gas replacing it as the world’s second-largest fuel source, BP said.
In spite of this, carbon dioxide emissions are seen growing by 20 percent from 2014 to 2035. Their growth rate is expected to more than halve to 0.9 percent a year over the next 20 years compared to 2.1 percent a year in the past 20 years.
BP said global energy demand is expected to grow by 34 percent by 2035 while oil production is expected to double.
The full report can be found here: www.bp.com/energyoutlook
Editing by Susanna Twidale