28 de agosto de 2014 / 14:48 / hace 3 años

UPDATE 1-IMF sees downward revision in Latin American growth estimates

(Adds detail on growth forecasts, quotes)

By Anthony Esposito

SANTIAGO, Aug 28 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund expects to reduce its growth estimates for Latin America in 2014 as investments cool amid a wider commodities-driven slowdown, said the organization’s Western Hemisphere Director Alejandro Werner on Thursday.

Speaking at a seminar in Chilean capital Santiago, Werner said individual country growth estimates would likely be revised downward for Brazil, Chile, Peru, Argentina and Venezuela.

“We are seeing a very significant deceleration for Latin America in 2014 that will partially reverse towards 2015 and 2016,” he said.

“But even so we are a seeing a future for Latin America in the next years that is substantially weaker than that of the last decade.”

Many of Latin America’s commodities-driven economies enjoyed red-hot growth in the 2000‘s, propelled by a surging China that demanded copper, soy and other Latin American exports.

But a shift in China’s economic model was creating a scenario of cooler growth ahead, said Werner.

“This rebalancing of accounts in China, with a reduction in the importance of investment and a growing importance in family consumption is a very fine balance that at some point in the next three to four years could make for a significant surprise,” he said.

Growth in Latin America would probably be around 3 percent over the next five years rather than the 4 percent previously forecast, said Werner.

The IMF is due to give its next regional estimates in October. (Reporting by Anthony Esposito, Writing by Rosalba O‘Brien; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Meredith Mazzilli)

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