8 de marzo de 2016 / 15:57 / en 2 años

EMERGING MARKETS-Brazil real outperforms on hopes of political change

By Bruno Federowski
    SAO PAULO, March 8 (Reuters) - The Brazilian real,
sidestepping weak Chinese trade data, outperformed weaker Latin
American currencies on Tuesday on hopes that a corruption
scandal could trigger the ouster of unpopular President Dilma
    Many traders blame interventionist policies pursued by
Rousseff and her predecessor Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva for
driving Brazil into what could be its worst recession in
    Over the last few months, Brazilian markets have often
rallied whenever chances of a change in government seemed to
    Traders said those odds increased sharply after Lula was
detained for questioning on Friday in a federal investigation of
a vast corruption scheme centered on state-controlled oil
company Petroleo Brasileiro SA.
    Shares of Petrobras, as the company is known, were slightly
higher despite a slump in crude oil prices . The
benchmark Bovespa stock index fell slightly in volatile trade,
pausing after six days of gains.
    "There has been a change in the tone of the market since
last week," said José Carlos Amado, a trader with Spinelli
brokerage in São Paulo. "Everybody used to be bearish, but now
some see reason to buy reals."
    Political risk consultancy Eurasia Group estimated a 55
percent probability that Rousseff could be forced to step down
before her term ends in 2018, according to a report.
    The real was the best performer among widely traded Latin
American currencies, which fell after China's trade performance
slumped in February. Imports by the world's biggest consumer of
commodities fell for the 16th month in a row, while exports
tumbled the most in over six years. 
    Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies at 1540 GMT:
 Stock indexes                               daily %     YTD %
                                Latest        change    change
 MSCI Emerging Markets               787.91    -0.91      0.13
 MSCI LatAm                         2006.20    -1.55     11.37
 Brazil Bovespa                    49069.46    -0.36     13.19
 Mexico IPC                        44372.43    -1.32      3.25
 Chile IPSA                         3807.19     -0.8      3.45
 Chile IGPA                        18677.09    -0.67      2.90
 Argentina MerVal                  13175.75    -0.45     12.85
 Colombia IGBC                      9565.10    -1.39     11.91
 Venezuela IBC                     16333.70     0.11     11.96
 Currencies                                  daily %     YTD %
                                              change    change
 Brazil real                         3.7933    -0.04      4.05
 Mexico peso                        17.9050    -0.83     -3.77
 Chile peso                           682.9    -0.57      3.92
 Colombia peso                      3164.55    -1.60      0.15
 Peru sol                            3.4661    -0.43     -1.50
 Argentina peso (interbank)         15.4600    -0.36    -16.03
 Argentina peso (parallel)            15.63     0.64     -8.70

 (Reporting by Bruno Federowski; Editing by Dan Grebler)

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