July 12, 2016 / 3:32 PM / 2 years ago

GRAINS-Soybeans advance ahead of USDA crop data

* Soybean traders eye hot weather ahead in Midwest

* Wheat market watching Egypt tender for price sign (New throughout, updates prices and market activity to include U.S. trading, changes byline, dateline from PARIS/SINGAPORE)

By Tom Polansek

CHICAGO, July 12 (Reuters) - U.S. soybean futures rose advanced on Tuesday ahead of a monthly crop outlook from the U.S. government that may show increased export demand for the oilseed.

Corn and wheat futures slipped.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture is expected to raise its forecast for 2015/16 and 2016/17 U.S. corn ending stocks, while lowering its forecast for 2015/16 U.S. soybean stocks, according to analysts surveyed by Reuters.

While U.S. corn inventories are expected to balloon above 2 billion bushels by the end of the 2016/17 marketing year, soybean stocks should be tighter due to export demand from China and crop problems in South America.

“There’s obviously a lot of speculation and debate surrounding the export estimates so pay close attention to the numbers,” said Kevin Van Trump, chief executive of Missouri-based consultancy Farm Direction.

Chicago Board of Trade November soybean futures, the most active contract , rose 11 cents to $10.66 a bushel by 10:10 CDT (1510 GMT).

The most actively traded December corn contract slipped 3-1/2 cents to $3.52 a bushel, while September wheat eased 2-1/2 cents $4.28 a bushel before the USDA issues its data at noon Eastern Daylight Time (1600 GMT).

“Trade is expecting to see friendly numbers for the soy complex in this release and neutral to bearish numbers on the grains,” said Karl Setzer, risk management team leader for MaxYield Cooperative in Iowa.

“While we may also see elevated soybean reserves, demand is forecast to increase.”

Soybean traders have been jittery about any signs of hot, dry summer weather that could stress crops and further tighten supplies in the United States and globally after harvest losses in South America.

“The current uncertainty surrounding the longer term weather outlook is allowing soybeans to hold on to gains,” said Madeleine Donlan, agricultural commodities analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

“The soybean market has less of an inventory buffer following large losses to South American crops earlier in the year.”

U.S. wheat has been recovering from a 10-year low hit last week amid strong harvest yields in the United States and the Black Sea region.

A tender on Tuesday from Egypt, the world’s biggest wheat importer, could add to pressure on wheat if it shows Black Sea origins to be much cheaper than U.S. and western European wheat. (Additional reporting by Naveen Thukral in Singapore and Gus Trompiz in Paris; Editing by William Hardy and David Gregorio)

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