16 de noviembre de 2016 / 16:31 / hace 9 meses

EMERGING MARKETS-Latam currencies seesaw on Trump policy uncertainty

By Bruno Federowski
    SAO PAULO, Nov 16 (Reuters) - Latin American currencies
seesawed on Wednesday as concerns over a potential global trade
shock under U.S. President-elect Donald Trump gave way to
uncertainty over the policies he will pursue.
    The Mexican peso was flat after losing 8.7 percent
last week, its worst week since October 2008.
    Some traders bet the selloff was overdone, though the peso
is widely seen as the currency that is most vulnerable to U.S.
political developments.
    Trump has pledged to review the terms of trade accords and
curtail relations with Mexico.
    Credit Suisse strategists revised their forecasts for the
peso to account for Trump's victory. They now expect it to
weaken to 23 to the dollar in three months and 25 in twelve
months, from 18.5 and 19.0 previously.
    "We believe the peso is now stepping into uncharted
territory, with all the uncertainty that this entails," analysts
led by Shahab Jalinoos wrote in a report.
    The Mexican central bank will announce its interest rate
decision on Thursday. Many analysts expect it to hike rates by
50 basis points to help curb financial market volatility and
avoid price pressure stemming from a weaker peso.
    The Brazilian real strengthened slightly, supported
by heavy central bank and National Treasury market intervention.
 
    Brazil's benchmark Bovespa stock index rose past the
60,000 milestone once again, supported by blue-chips like
state-controlled oil company Petróleo Brasileiro SA 
 and state-owned lender Banco do Brasil SA.
    Brazilian markets did not open on Tuesday, when demand for
emerging markets rebounded, due to a local holiday.
    
    Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies at 1620 GMT:
 Stock indexes                              daily %    YTD %
                                             change   change
                                 Latest              
 MSCI Emerging Markets              846.58      0.6     5.96
                                                     
 MSCI LatAm                        2292.46     1.64    23.26
 Brazil Bovespa                   60775.35     1.87    40.20
 Mexico IPC                       45250.10      0.5     5.29
 Chile IPSA                        4171.44     0.44    13.35
 Chile IGPA                       20873.97     0.35    15.00
 Argentina MerVal                 16297.08     -1.1    39.59
 Colombia IGBC                     9662.51     0.13    13.05
 Venezuela IBC                    26438.16     3.27    81.23
                                                            
 Currencies                                 daily %    YTD %
                                             change   change
                                    Latest           
 Brazil real                        3.4180     0.40    15.48
                                                     
 Mexico peso                       20.2745     0.00   -15.02
                                                     
 Chile peso                         675.45    -0.64     5.07
 Colombia peso                     3122.99    -0.15     1.48
 Peru sol                            3.413     0.15     0.03
                                                     
 Argentina peso (interbank)        15.4700     0.32   -16.08
                                                     
 Argentina peso (parallel)           15.57     0.58    -8.35
                                                     
 

 (Editing by Chris Reese)

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