28 de noviembre de 2016 / 11:52 / hace un año

UPDATE 1-Economists cut Brazil's 2017 growth view below 1 pct - poll

(Recasts with 2017 GDP forecast, Reuters poll)
    BRASILIA, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Brazil's economy will probably grow less than 1 percent in
2017, emerging from a harsh recession more slowly than previously expected, a weekly central
bank poll showed on Monday.
    Economists cut their median forecasts for Brazil's gross domestic product in 2017 for a
sixth straight week, to 0.98 percent, the central bank said. 
    A Reuters poll on Friday also showed economists forecasting growth to be under 1 percent
next year. 
    Statistics agency IBGE will publish third-quarter GDP data on Wednesday, probably to show
that the one of the longest recessions in Brazil's history took a turn for the worse. Brazil's
economy is expected to shrink more than 3 percent for a second straight year in 2016.
    See below a summary of market expectations for the Brazilian economy, according to a weekly
survey conducted by the central bank with about 100 financial institutions. 
    
    Median market expectations
    
                                    2016                    2017
                                    previous      new       previous      new
                                    forecast    forecast    forecast    forecast
 Consumer inflation (IPCA) (%)         6.80        6.72        4.93        4.93   
 
 IGP-DI price index (%)                6.88        6.83        5.17        5.06   
 
 IGP-M price index (%)                 7.25        7.18        5.30        5.22   
 
 IPC-Fipe price index (%)              6.58        6.58        5.06        5.06   
 
 Exchange rate (reais per 
 U.S dollar, end-period)               3.30        3.35        3.40        3.40   
 
 Exchange rate (reais per
 U.S dollar, average)                  3.45        3.45        3.36        3.40   
 
 Interest rate (end-period) (%)       13.75       13.75       10.75       10.75   
 
 Interest rate (average) (%)          14.16       14.16       11.67       11.69   
 
 Net debt/GDP (%)                     44.90       45.40       49.90       50.79   
 
 GDP growth (%)                       -3.40       -3.49        1.00        0.98   
 
 Industrial output (%)                -6.02       -6.23        1.11        1.21   
 
 Current account ($)                 -19.00      -19.00      -25.35      -25.68   
 
 Trade balance ($)                    47.42       47.00       45.00       44.07   
 
 FDI ($)                              65.00       65.00       65.00       70.00   
 
 Administered prices (%)               6.07        6.02        5.30        5.28   
 
 Median expectation of top 5 forecasters
                                    2016                    2017
                                    previous      new       previous      new
                                    forecast    forecast    forecast    forecast
 Short term                         
 Consumer inflation (IPCA) (%)         6.78        6.71        4.80        4.80  
 
 IGP-DI price index (%)                6.66        6.66        4.94        4.94  
 
 IGP-M price index (%)                 7.08        7.08        5.08        5.08  
 
 Exchange rate (reais per
 U.S dollar, end-period)               3.22        3.28        3.50        3.50  
 
 Interest rate (end-period) (%)       13.75       13.75       10.25       10.38  
 
 --                                    --          --          --          --
 Medium term
 Consumer inflation (IPCA) (%)         6.79        6.68        4.81        4.80  
 
 IGP-DI price index (%)                6.76        6.76        5.00        5.00  
 
 IGP-M price index (%)                 7.08        7.08        5.00        5.00  
 
 Exchange rate (reais per
 U.S dollar, end-period)               3.30        3.30        3.45        3.45  
 
 Interest rate (end-period) (%)       13.75       13.75       11.25       11.25  
 
 
 (Reporting by Silvio Cascione; Editing by Catherine Evans)

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