LIMA, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Peru’s economy likely grew by 1.15 percent in August from the same month in 2013, at about the same pace as in July, as mining activity shrank for a fifth straight month, a Reuters poll showed on Monday.
The estimates of 14 local and foreign analysts ranged from an August expansion of between 0.5 percent to 2.3 percent.
The median forecast of 1.15 percent would be slightly under the 1.16 percent year-on-year expansion in July, the month the government had pinpointed as the start of the economy’s recovery from its weakest growth rate in five years.
The forecast for August comes in well below the 5.72 percent expansion posted in the same month in 2013, when the economy grew by 5.8 percent in the full year.
Peru is on track to post an expansion of around 3 percent this year, about half of initial estimates by the government and central bank of around 6 percent.
Lower metal prices and China’s slowdown have eaten into growth rates in Peru that averaged 6.4 percent annually in the past decade.
Growth in August was led by retail and services and dragged down by falling mining and fishing activity, preliminary government data showed.
Analysts said construction and manufacturing were still weak in August, though performed slightly better than in July.
Consumption of cement, a barometer for construction activity, fell by 0.65 percent in August, official data showed.
However, analysts said more electrical usage and greater public spending suggest more robust growth in September.
“Given that, Peru’s economy probably grew about 1.7 percent in the third quarter, without showing progress from the second quarter,” said Jhon Gonzales, an economist with Maximixe.
Growth data for August is expected to be released on Wednesday. (Reporting By Ursula Scollo; Editing by Meredith Mazzilli)