2 de diciembre de 2014 / 11:35 / en 3 años

UPDATE 1-Brazil's industrial output remains stuck in October

(Adds details from IBGE report, context)
    By Asher Levine
    RIO DE JANEIRO, Dec 2 (Reuters) - Brazilian industrial
output remained stable in October, missing expectations for a
slight advance and dimming hope for an eventual turnaround in
the country's long-suffering manufacturing sector. 
    Output at factories and mines was unchanged in
October from September, statistics agency IBGE said on Tuesday,
falling short of forecasts for a 0.3 percent gain in a Reuters
survey of 23 analysts.
    The latest numbers follow the industrial sector's 0.2
percent decline in September and are likely to quell the notion
that Brazilian industry was finally turning around after
advances of 0.6 percent in both July and August. 
    Brazilian industry has contracted 3 percent in the first 10
months of the year, IBGE said.
    Years of mediocre performance among local manufacturers have
been difficult for the government to halt despite waves of
stimulus measures and tax breaks. Most economists blame
hard-to-fix structural problems, such as tougher competition
from abroad, poor infrastructure at home, and high tax and labor
    October industrial production was down 3.6 percent from a
year earlier, worse than the 3.0 percent decline
forecast in the Reuters poll.
    Industrial output is expected to drop 2.26 percent in 2014
from the previous year, according to the median forecast of a
weekly central bank poll of analysts released Monday, though
output was seen growing 1.13 percent in 2015. 
    That estimate is likely to be revised lower next week,
especially after purchasing managers' index data released on
Monday showed Brazil's manufacturing activity likely shrank in
    Capital goods production, which often tracks business
confidence in future economic growth, was unchanged in October
from September. Intermediate goods such as textiles and
chemicals also remained stable, while durable consumer goods
such as furniture and home appliances fell 0.8 percent.
    (For details on the IBGE industrial output figures, see, in
Portuguese: here)
 (pct change)                       Oct/Sept    Oct'14/Oct'13
 Capital goods                      0.0         -11.4
 Intermediate goods                 0.0         -2.8
 Consumer goods                     0.2         -2.4
     Durable consumer goods         -0.8        -9.4
     Semi-durable and non-durable   -0.6        -0.1
 consumer goods                                 
 Industrial output                  0.0         -3.6

 (Reporting by Rodrigo Viga Gaier and Felipe Pontes; Writing by
Asher Levine Editing by W Simon)

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